Today’s Politics Are Tomorrow’s Climate Policies

Introduction — a bit about midterm congressional elections and sitting presidents

The US is less than a month away from the 2022 midterm elections. In fact, mail-in balloting has already begun in some states, including Minnesota, Virginia, Illinois, and Michigan, and soon in other crucial states like Arizona, Ohio, and Georgia.

Generally, balloting in non-presidential elections is characterized by low voter turnout and the loss of congressional seats by a sitting president’s party. In the modern era, a sitting president’s party has lost an average of 30 seats in Congress.

Since 1980, the balance of congressional power has remained the same in four elections. In 1994 and 2006 the Democrats captured both the House and Senate. Three times the Republicans picked up the House or the Senate from Democrats.

Through the first half of this year, the 2022 midterm looked much like elections past. For Democrats, that meant a problem motivating their base even to cast their ballots. While for Republicans, the outcome looked rosy. The odds of taking control of one or both chambers of Congress were high.