- The next three weeks are crucial to both Republicans and Democrats standing for election.
- As Americans continue to put the economy and inflation at the top of their priority lists, the momentum has swung back to Republicans, who rank higher with voters on these issues.
- The House of Representatives is much more Trump-centric than the Senate.
- Realistically, Congress is finished passing major climate legislation for at least the next two years — probably four or more, depending on the outcome of the 2022 and 2024 elections. The most that can be hoped for are refinements to the already passed legislation based on experience.
Part 1 of the series, Today’s Politics Are Tomorrow’s Climate Policies, focused on the politics of the 2022 midterm elections surrounding the US Senate. Control of the Senate is still something of a 50/50 proposition, although in recent weeks there’s been a shift of momentum towards the Republicans.
Whatever the outcome of the Senate elections, the upper chamber will be a moderating influence on a Republican controlled House of Representatives. More Trump-centric than the Senate, the House under the leadership of Kevin McCarthy will be ground-zero in the continuing culture wars.
Throughout the 2022 election cycle, it’s been predicted that the US House of Representatives would flip from Democratic to Republican. For that to happen, Republicans will need to gain a net of just five seats
Although Republican control of the peoples’ House is still anticipated, the margin of victory has been coming down since mid-summer, when a blowout was predicted. The catalyst for the change was the US Supreme Court’s (SCOTUS) decision in Dobbs v. Jackson that overturned a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion, as established by Roe v. Wade.
There’s growing evidence that the abortion issue is not what most voters have at the top of their priority lists. The top spots are, unsurprisingly, the economy and inflation. President Biden has called the economy “strong as hell.” While eating an ice cream cone, Biden expressed what he’s worried about–
“I’m not concerned about the strength of the dollar; I’m concerned about the rest of the…